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Project Alpine — Valuation Model

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Project Alpine — Valuation Model

Saved
A1fxSummit Mechanical Group, Inc. — Project Alpine
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Summit Mechanical Group, Inc. — Project Alpine
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Assumptions & Financial Projections
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($ in millions, fiscal years ending December 31)
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Sources: Audited financial statements FY2023–FY2025 (Holloway & Birch LLP); Quality of Earnings — draft (Whetstone Advisory); FY2026 board-approved operating budget
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FY2023A
FY2024A
FY2025A
FY2026E
FY2027E
FY2028E
FY2029E
FY2030E
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KEY DRIVERS — PROJECTED YEARS
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Revenue growth — Service & Maintenance
15.0%
10.0%
9.0%
8.5%
8.0%
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Revenue growth — Projects & Installation
4.8%
5.0%
5.0%
4.5%
4.5%
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Revenue growth — Controls & Automation
8.5%
9.0%
9.0%
8.5%
8.0%
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Adjusted EBITDA margin
13.8%
14.0%
14.2%
14.3%
14.4%
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D&A (% of revenue)
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
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Capital expenditures (% of revenue)
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
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Net working capital (% of revenue)
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
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Cash tax rate
26.0%
26.0%
26.0%
26.0%
26.0%
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REVENUE BUILD
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Service & Maintenance
56.1
64.1
73.1
84.1
93.1
101.1
110.1
118.1
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Projects & Installation
33.1
34.1
35.1
37.1
39.1
41.1
43.1
45.1
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Controls & Automation
8.1
9.1
9.1
10.1
11.1
12.1
13.1
14.1
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Total revenue
96.1
107.1
118.1
131.1
143.1
154.1
165.1
177.1
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% growth
11.2%
10.8%
11.4%
8.5%
7.9%
7.4%
7.1%
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Recurring (Service) % of revenue
58.0%
60.0%
62.0%
64.0%
64.9%
65.6%
66.2%
66.8%
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EBITDA BUILD
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Reported EBITDA
10.1
12.1
14.1
17.1
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(+) Owner compensation above market
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
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(+) Personal expenses run through the business
1.1
1.1
1.1
0.1
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(+) Non-recurring legal and settlement costs
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
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Total QoE adjustments
2.1
2.1
2.1
1.1
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Adjusted EBITDA
12.2
14.2
16.2
18.2
20.1
22.1
24.1
26.1
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Adjusted EBITDA margin
12.0%
12.8%
13.7%
13.8%
14.0%
14.2%
14.3%
14.4%
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Summit Mechanical Group, Inc. — Project Alpine
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Trading Comparables — Mechanical & Building Services
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($ in millions, except per-share data; market data as of August 15, 2026)
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Price
Mkt cap
Net debt
EV
EBITDA
EV/EBITDA
Rev growth
Margin
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PUBLIC COMPARABLES
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Comfort Systems USA
412.10
14,780
318
15,098
1,412
10.7x
18.2%
13.1%
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EMCOR Group
486.20
22,140
-1,020
21,120
2,180
9.7x
15.4%
11.8%
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IES Holdings
228.40
4,560
-310
4,250
486
8.7x
21.0%
13.4%
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Limbach Holdings
82.60
946
-42
904
78
11.6x
9.8%
13.9%
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MYR Group
148.30
2,380
104
2,484
241
10.3x
7.1%
7.9%
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SUMMARY STATISTICS
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High
11.6x
21.0%
13.9%
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75th percentile
10.7x
18.2%
13.4%
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Median
10.3x
15.4%
13.1%
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25th percentile
9.7x
9.8%
11.8%
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Low
8.7x
7.1%
7.9%
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APPLIED TO SUMMIT — FY2025A ADJUSTED EBITDA OF $16.2M
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Selected multiple range
8.5x – 10.5x
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Implied enterprise value
137.7 – 170.1
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Less: net debt incl. debt-like items
(22.5)
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Implied equity value to sellers
115.2 – 147.6
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Summit trades at a discount to the public set on scale and customer concentration; the selected range sits below the median.
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Summit Mechanical Group, Inc. — Project Alpine
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Discounted Cash Flow — Unlevered Free Cash Flow
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($ in millions, fiscal years ending December 31)
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5
FY2026E
FY2027E
FY2028E
FY2029E
FY2030E
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UNLEVERED FREE CASH FLOW
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Adjusted EBITDA
18.2
20.1
22.1
24.1
26.1
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Less: depreciation & amortization
(3.9)
(4.3)
(4.6)
(5.0)
(5.3)
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EBIT
14.3
15.8
17.5
19.1
20.8
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Less: cash taxes on EBIT
(3.7)
(4.1)
(4.6)
(5.0)
(5.4)
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Tax-effected EBIT (NOPAT)
10.6
11.7
12.9
14.1
15.4
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Plus: depreciation & amortization
3.9
4.3
4.6
5.0
5.3
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Less: capital expenditures
(4.3)
(4.7)
(5.1)
(5.5)
(5.8)
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Less: (increase) in net working capital
(0.3)
(0.3)
(0.3)
(0.3)
(0.3)
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Unlevered free cash flow
9.9
11.0
12.1
13.3
14.6
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FCF conversion (% of adjusted EBITDA)
54.4%
54.7%
54.8%
55.2%
55.9%
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CAPITALIZATION & EQUITY BRIDGE — as of December 31, 2025
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Term loan outstanding
24.1
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Revolving credit facility drawn
0.1
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Total funded debt
24.2
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Less: cash and cash equivalents
(6.1)
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Net funded debt
18.1
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Deferred revenue balance
5.8
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% of deferred revenue treated as debt-like
50.0%
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Debt-like — deferred revenue
2.9
27
Other long-term liabilities (deferred comp)
1.5
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% of other LT liabilities treated as debt-like
100.0%
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Debt-like — other long-term liabilities
1.5
30
Total net debt incl. debt-like items
22.5
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MEMO
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FY2025A adjusted EBITDA
16.2
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Total funded debt / FY2025A adjusted EBITDA
1.49x
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Total net debt (incl. debt-like) / FY2025A
1.39x
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Summit Mechanical Group, Inc. — Project Alpine
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Valuation Reference Range — Football Field
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($ in millions; enterprise value unless noted)
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Low
High
Midpoint
Low x
High x
Equity low
Equity high
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METHODOLOGIES
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Discounted cash flow
123.3
167.6
145.4
7.6x
10.3x
100.8
145.1
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Trading comparables
137.7
170.1
153.9
8.5x
10.5x
115.2
147.6
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Precedent transactions
145.8
194.4
170.1
9.0x
12.0x
123.3
171.9
10
LBO — 22.5% sponsor IRR
129.6
158.8
144.2
8.0x
9.8x
107.1
136.3
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OVERALL REFERENCE RANGE
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Enterprise value
123.3
194.4
158.9
7.6x
12.0x
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Less: net debt incl. debt-like items
(22.5)
(22.5)
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Equity value to sellers
100.8
171.9
136.4
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FY2025A adjusted EBITDA of $16.2M. DCF sets the floor of the range; precedent transactions set the ceiling.
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Assumptions and FinancialsTrading CompsDCFFootball Field

The grid

Nothing you have to give up

It is a real spreadsheet. Formulas across sheets, number formats that put negatives in parentheses, frozen panes, sort and filter, and your existing .xlsx files brought in with the formatting intact.

Formulas

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Built from any range, linked to a deck

Sort & filter

Per column, across the used range

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Anchored to cells, threaded, resolvable

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The muscle memory carries over

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Drag a formula across the projection years

Provenance

Every number says where it came from

A model an agent built is worth nothing if nobody can say where the numbers came from. Pitchcrow comments on the cells it hardcoded, citing the file and the page behind each figure. Click any number and read its source.

Comments thread and resolve on the range, so the desk answers on the cell rather than in an email nobody can find in two weeks. After every run Pitchcrow recalculates the whole workbook and reports any cell that no longer computes, before you open it.

Comments

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Assumptions and Financials

Pitchcrow

just now

Reported EBITDA is taken straight from the audited statements: FY2023A $10.1M, FY2024A $12.1M, FY2025A $14.1M (Holloway & Birch LLP, income statement p.4). FY2026E $17.1M is the board-approved budget, not my estimate.

Assumptions!B26:E26

F

Faraaz

2m

Good. Flag it here if the final QoE moves the owner-comp add-back.

Resolve

Pitchcrow

4d

The $2.1M of add-backs are the Whetstone QoE adjustments taken line for line: owner compensation above market, personal expenses, and non-recurring legal. None of them are mine.

Assumptions!B27:E29

Isolation

Your model never leaves your walls

Your firm gets its own sealed environment, and every agent runs in its own sandbox inside it. No shared execution, no shared storage, and no network out.

Your firm

Granite — CIM.pdfQuality of earnings.xlsxOperating model v4.xlsxBoard pack.pptx

Agent A

own environment

Agent B

own environment

Private network

Another firm

Agent

own environment

Agent

own environment

Private network

Another firm

Agent

own environment

Agent

own environment

Private network

Versioning

Publish a version, keep working

Freeze the workbook as it stands and send that, not the live document. The published copy opens read-only with its own link and shows whether it is still up to date, while the desk keeps editing behind it.

Project Alpine — Valuation Model

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F11fx0.14
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CAPITALIZATION & EQUITY BRIDGE — as of December 31, 2025
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Term loan outstanding
24.1
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Revolving credit facility drawn
0.1
21
Total funded debt
24.2
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Less: cash and cash equivalents
(6.1)
23
Net funded debt
18.1
24
Deferred revenue balance
5.8
25
% of deferred revenue treated as debt-like
50.0%
26
Debt-like — deferred revenue
2.9
27
Other long-term liabilities (deferred comp)
1.5
28
% of other LT liabilities treated as debt-like
100.0%
29
Debt-like — other long-term liabilities
1.5
30
Total net debt incl. debt-like items
22.5
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MEMO
33
FY2025A adjusted EBITDA
16.2
34
Total funded debt / FY2025A adjusted EBITDA
1.49x
35
Total net debt (incl. debt-like) / FY2025A
1.39x
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Assumptions and FinancialsTrading CompsDCFFootball Field

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Live documentPublished version

Publish new version

MD Review

Updated just now · Faraaz

Up to date

Viewers see the frozen state you published. Their comments land on the live document.

Done

Project Alpine — Valuation Model — MD Review

Published August 18 at 8:18 PM

A
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CAPITALIZATION & EQUITY BRIDGE — as of December 31, 2025
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Term loan outstanding
24.1
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Revolving credit facility drawn
0.1
21
Total funded debt
24.2
22
Less: cash and cash equivalents
(6.1)
23
Net funded debt
18.1
24
Deferred revenue balance
5.8
25
% of deferred revenue treated as debt-like
50.0%
26
Debt-like — deferred revenue
2.9
27
Other long-term liabilities (deferred comp)
1.5
28
% of other LT liabilities treated as debt-like
100.0%
29
Debt-like — other long-term liabilities
1.5
30
Total net debt incl. debt-like items
22.5
31
32
MEMO
33
FY2025A adjusted EBITDA
16.2
34
Total funded debt / FY2025A adjusted EBITDA
1.49x
35
Total net debt (incl. debt-like) / FY2025A
1.39x
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Assumptions and FinancialsTrading CompsDCFFootball Field

History

Every change on the record

Every edit lands in one timeline, the agent's and the team's alike, with a checkpoint written before each run. Click any entry to see the workbook exactly as it was then, and restore it if the last hour went the wrong way.

Viewing Aug 15, 7:51 PM

Restore
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Today

Checkpoint · 8:22 PM

Pitchcrow edited 2 sheets

8:17 PM · 2 sheets · Live version

F

Faraaz edited 1 sheet

7:54 PM · 1 sheet

Checkpoint · 7:51 PM

Pitchcrow edited 2 sheets

7:51 PM · 2 sheets

Checkpoint · 7:50 PM

Aug 14

F

Faraaz edited 1 sheet

11:34 PM · 1 sheet

Checkpoint · 11:32 PM

Pitchcrow edited 4 sheets, deleted 1

11:32 PM · 5 sheets

Sheet created · 10:17 PM

Click any entry to view the document as it was.

One space

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Sheets and decks live in the same space, built from the same files. A chart on page 14 of the CIM is backed by a range in the model, so when the DCF moves, the page moves with it. The agent building the deck reads the model directly.

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